复杂系统评价指标的评价方法研究——以城市水安全为例  

Study on Assessment Methods of Evaluate Indexes for Complex System:Taking Urban Water Safety as Case

作　　者：黄英[1] 刘新有[1] 史正涛[2] 方绍东[3] 柏绍光[3] 

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局,云南昆明650106 [2]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650092 [3]云南省水文水资源局昆明分局,云南昆明650051

出　　处：《水文》2009年第2期45-46,47-49,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：云南省水利厅2008年水利科技项目;云南省中青年学术技术带头人培养项目(2007py01-43)

摘　　要：复杂系统指标评价方法与模型的科学性是确保其综合评价科学性的基础。文章分析了复杂系统及其评价指标的评价方法,针对目前指标评价普遍采用的归一化和标准化等直线型评价方法所存在的问题,提出了更切合实际的曲线型指标评价方法,并借鉴"边际效益递减"原理,阐述了曲线型指标评价方法的原理与方法,结合城市水安全评价实例进行了运用研究。根据所建立的城市水安全评价指标体系,通过指标类型分析及各指标取值与其对应得分的关系,确定了每个指标的评价函数与评价标准,进而确定了每个指标的评价模型,为复杂系统评价指标的评价提供了一种更为科学的方法,具有广泛的应用价值。Scientific of model and method to the evaluation indexes for complex system is the basic which can make the Compre hensive Evaluation having scientific nature. This paper analyzes complex system and the assessment method of evaluation indexes for complex system. Based on analyzing the existing research works on evaluation indexes which generally used, normalization and standardized linear assessment methods for examples, we have proposed curved linear evaluation indexes which are more practicable. And for describing the establishment of principles and methods in curved linear evaluation index method, we have drawn lessons from law of diminishing marginal utility, we also combined with urban water safety as an example in application research. According to the established evaluation indexes in urban water safety, we have conformed the evaluation function, evaluation criteria and evaluating model of every index in analyzing the type of each index and assessing the relation between value of each index and its corresponding score. That provides a more scientific method for the assessment of evaluation indexes in complex system, and has extensive value in use.

关 键 词：评价方法 复杂系统 边际效益 曲线型指标 城市水安全 

分 类 号：TV82[水利工程—水利水电工程]