公共投资与宏观经济结构的实证研究  

Empirical Research on the Effects of Public Investment to Economic Structure

作　　者：杨大楷[1] 孙敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学投资系,上海200433

出　　处：《经济问题》2009年第4期21-24,共4页On Economic Problems

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(08JC790087);上海市教育委员会科研创新项目(08ZS38);上海财经大学"211工程"第三期重点学科建设项目(2007330022)

摘　　要：运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解计量分析工具,对我国公共投资与宏观经济结构的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:公共投资与三次产业总产值均具有长期正向均衡关系,其中对第三产业的正效应最大,第一产业最弱;三次产业总产值对公共投资冲击的长期响应为正;公共投资对第一、三产业总产值增长误差的解释能力弱于第二产业,但均不显著。为此提出,调整公共投资产业结构,增加农业、科技创新、教育卫生、社会福利等支持力度是促进产业结构调整内在推动力的积极建议。This article focuses on the Empirical Research about the effects of public investment to economic structure, using econometric tools of cointegration analysis, VECM, impulse response and residual decomposition. Our results indicate： public investment and three - level industry has positive long - term equilibrium relation, and the positive effects to the third industry is strongest, while to the first is weakest; impulse response of three - level industry to the public investment shock is positive; public investment can better explain the growth errors of the first and third industry than the second, but all not significant. So we suggest adjusting industrial structure of public investment, adding investment on agriculture, technology, education, healthcare and social welfare.

关 键 词：公共投资 产业结构 实证研究 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]