世界经济非周期性波动影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Influential Factors on Non-cyclical Fluctuation of World Economy

作　　者：李天德[1] 王悦[1] 陈明伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2009年第5期96-102,共7页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大委托项目资助;四川大学经济学院李天德教授主持的国家社科基金重大项目<世界经济周期性与非周期性波动与中国经济预警机制建设>(课题编号:05&ZD006)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文对世界经济非周期性波动的影响因素进行了专门分析,总结了"世界经济非周期性波动影响因素"作用的特征,结合世界经济非周期性波动的实例,概括了影响当前和未来世界经济运行的主要非周期性因素,对"世界经济非周期性波动影响因素"对世界经济运行的影响进行了计量分析,并对当前由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机这一非周期性因素与世界经济周期的关系进行了探讨。This article analyzes non - cyclical factors of world- economy, presents the definition of non - cyclical factors, studies the characteristics of non- cyclical factors, gives some examples of non- cyclical fluctuation of world economy, points out the main non - cyclical factors impacting current world economy, conducts econometric research on the effect of non- cyclical factors on world economy, and probes into the relationship between current global financial crisis arising from the subprime- loan crisis and world business cycle. This article studies non- cyclical fluctuation rarely covered in previous business cycle theories, and the results are valuable for reference in related research.

关 键 词：经济周期 经济波动 非周期性波动 

分 类 号：F113.7[经济管理—国际贸易]