Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study  

作　　者：Thanet Wattanakul 

机构地区：[1]Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University VIC 3000, Australia [2]Nong Khai Campus, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand

出　　处：《Chinese Business Review》2009年第1期17-30,共14页中国经济评论（英文版）

摘　　要：Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.

关 键 词：trade and investment liberalization regional economic integration free trade agreements trade and growth causality generalized gravity theory modelling economic and trade policy 

分 类 号：F743[经济管理—国际贸易] F224.0[经济管理—产业经济]