国际粮食价格与其产量、消费和库存——基于时间序列的实证研究:1980-2007年  

An Empirical Study on the International Price of Grain from 1980 to 2007

作　　者：王文斌[1] 戴金平[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学国际经济研究所

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2009年第5期35-40,共6页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科重大招标课题"互利共赢的开放战略"基金资助;基金号:07&ZD054

摘　　要：本文实证研究了国际粮食价格与粮食产量、粮食消费和粮食库存(1980-2007)之间的关系,结果表明:国际粮食价格与粮食产量、粮食消费和粮食库存之间存在稳定的协整关系。粮食库存是影响国际粮食价格的最主要因素,影响国际粮食价格波动的最重要因素是粮食库存,且其影响力会逐渐增强;其次是粮食消费水平,而粮食产量对国际粮食价格的影响相对较小。This paper focuses on the relationship between price of grain and yield of grain, and between consumption of grain and deposit of grain. It demonstrates that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between them. Deposit of grain is the main factor influencing price of grain in the short and long period of time, and the influence will be strengthened gradually. The second important factor influencing international price of grain is consumption of grain, and yield of grain has less influence on price of grain.

关 键 词：国际粮食价格波动 协整分析 实证研究 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F724.721