绍兴市新发传染病风险评估指标体系研究  

Risk assessment index system for emerging infectious diseases in ShaoXing city

作　　者：方益荣[1] 屠春雨[1] 付利军[1] 王吉玲[1] 郭天英[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省绍兴市疾病预防控制中心,浙江绍兴312000

出　　处：《中国农村卫生事业管理》2009年第1期50-53,共4页Chinese Rural Health Service Administration

摘　　要：目的:建立新发传染病风险评估指标体系,为研究新发传染病在绍兴市流行的风险提供科学的方法。方法:采用层次分析法,根据专业知识和专家的建议,结合绍兴市实际情况,确定了新发传染病的风险因子,然后分别计算出各项风险因子的组合权重系数,建立传染病风险评估指标体系。结果:从传染病的传染源、传播途径和预防控制措施3方面,确定了传染源国内分布、国际分布等14项风险因素,组合权重系数较高的为传染源国内分布(0.2416)、自然因素的影响(0.1365)社会因素的影响(0.1365)和传染源国际分布(0.1365),通过该评估体系,有效地对绍兴市新发传染病进行风险评估。结论:建立的新发传染病风险评估体系,能有效地评估传染病发生、流行的风险。Objective To establish a risk assessment system for emerging infectious diseases in Shaoxing city,and to provide scientific evidence for prevention and control of diseases. Methods Risk assessment system was set up by analytic hierarchy process. Risk factors were selected according to experts＇ suggestions and conditions in Shaoxing city. Results According to source of infection ,route of transmission and measures of prevention and control, 14 kinds of risk factors were selected. Domestic distribution of source of infection（0. 2416） ,natural factors （0. 1365） ,social factors （0. 1366）and international distribution of source of infection（0. 1365） were high risk factors. This system had been used sucessfully in Shaoxing city. Conclusion.; This study provides a basic method of assessing infectious diseases risk. The risk of emerging infectious diseases in shaoxing can be effectively assessed by this system.

关 键 词：新发传染病 层次分析法 风险评估 预防控制 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]