吉林省单站暴雨特征分析及评估方法  

Methods of characteristics analysis and assessment for single-station heavy rainfall in Jilin province

作　　者：袭祝香[1] 孙力[2] 刘实[3] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省气象台,长春130062 [2]吉林省气象局,长春130062 [3]吉林省气象科学研究所,长春130062

出　　处：《气象科学》2009年第2期230-234,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40633016);科技部项目"松嫩流域暴雨洪涝灾害的监测和预报技术"

摘　　要：利用吉林省50站1951—2007年逐日降水资料,对暴雨的时空分布规律和气候变化特征进行了分析,对单站暴雨采用等级、序位、异常气候重现期等方法进行了评估。结果表明:吉林省暴雨一般集中出现在7月上旬到8月下旬,且有一半以上的县市暴雨的气候倾向率呈上升的趋势,1980s中期以来,吉林省中东部地区暴雨出现次数处于偏多阶段。对吉林省单站暴雨采用等级、序位、异常气候重现期等方法进行了评估,对2005—2007年吉林省出现的大暴雨进行了试评估。Using the daily precipitation data of 50 meteorological stations in Jilin province from 1951 to 2007, temporal and spatial distributions and climatic change characteristics of the single-station heavy rainfalls are analyzed. The single-station heavy rainfalls are evaluated with some indices such as grades, orders and return period of abnormal climate. The results show that heavy rainfalls mainly occur from early July to late August in Jilin province. And the climatic trend rates of heavy rainfall show a raise tendeney at more than half of the stations. The heavy rainfall events are more frequent in middle-east area of Ji1in Province since the middle of 1980s. The single-station heavy rainfalls in Jilin province are evaluated with some indices such as grades, orders and return period of abnormal climate. The preliminary evaluating of heavy rainfalls exceeding 100 mm in Jilin province from 2005 to 2007 are given.

关 键 词：单站暴雨 评估方法 皮尔逊-Ⅲ分布 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]