沈阳市城市扩展动态模拟与预测  

Dynamic simulation and prediction of urban growth in Shenyang City

作　　者：吴晓青[1,2] 胡远满[1] 贺红士[1] 布仁仓[1] 郗凤明[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]中国科学院烟台海岸带可持续发展研究所,山东烟台264003 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039

出　　处：《辽宁工程技术大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第2期318-321,共4页Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science)

基　　金：中国科学院创新工程基金资助项目(KSCX2-SW-133);中科院知识创新工程前沿领域基金资助项目(O6LYQY1001)

摘　　要：基于遥感和GIS,采用SLEUTH模型对沈阳市辖区1988-2004年间的城市扩展过程进行动态模拟,对未来(2005-2030年)两种预案条件下的城市发展格局进行预测,即目前趋势预案和区域开发政策与城市规划预案。结果表明:到2030年,两种预案条件下,城市面积分别增加306.0km2和172.7km2,占土地总面积的百分比达到22.1%和18.3%。目前趋势预案条件下的未来城市发展格局比较分散;而区域开发政策与规划预案条件下,城市扩展格局将更加紧凑,充分体现了区域开发与保护政策、城市规划对城市扩展的约束和引导作用。Based on remote sensing and GIS, SLEUTH model, a well-known cellular automata model, was applied to simulate urban development between 1988 and 2004 in Shenyang city. Future urban development was projected out to 2030 assuming two different urban development scenarios： （1） current trends development, （2） urban growth considering regional exploitation polices and urban planning. The results show urban growth area would be up to 306.0 km^2 and 172.7 km^2 in 2030, and urban area accounted for 22.1% and 18.3% of total land area under the two urban growth scenarios, respectively. The more dispersed urban development pattern was produced under the current trends scenario, which allows the continuous expansion of the surrounding towns. Under the regional exploitation policies and urban planning scenario, however, the compact growth pattern shows the control and guide action of future regional development and preservation policies and urban planning.

关 键 词：SLEUTH 沈阳市 城市扩展 动态模拟 预案 

分 类 号：P271[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]