无信号控制平面交叉口交通冲突预测模型研究  

Research on Traffic Conflict Prediction Model of Unsignalized Highway Intersection

作　　者：项乔君[1] 卢川[1] 吴群[1] 陆键[1] 马永锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2009年第5期132-135,共4页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50522207)

摘　　要：以无信号控制平面交叉口为研究对象,在交通流运行特征分析的基础上,用泊松分布描述车辆的到达特性。通过相关假定,指出机动车与机动车之间冲突发生的条件及冲突数的计算方法,认为平交口内车辆之间的冲突是按照一定概率同时进入交叉口的车辆相互干扰的结果。运用概率统计的相关理论计算出在车辆横穿交叉口的时间CT内,单进口道发生的冲突数,进而计算出单进口道的小时冲突数及整个交叉口的小时冲突数。建立了冲突预测模型,并利用实测数据对模型进行了验证。Regarded unsignalized intersection as research object, Poisson distribution was introduced to describe the arrival characteristic of vehicle flow based on the analysis of traffic flow operation character. With some assumption, the fomaing conditions and calculation method of conflict between vehicles were pointed out. It is thought that traffic conflict occurs at a certain probability when two vehicles arrive at the same time. The number of traffic conflicts in single inlet during cross time was calculated with method of probability statistics, and for the number of conflicts in one hour of the inlet and the whole intersection were further extended. At last a traffic conflict prediction model was established and it was validated by observed data.

关 键 词：交通工程 预测模型 概率统计 无信号控制平面交叉口 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]