基于模糊逻辑的交通事故预测及影响因素分析  

Traffic Accidents Prediction and Prominent Influencing Factors Analysis Based on Fuzzy Logic

作　　者：孟祥海[1] 郑来[1] 秦观明[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2009年第2期87-92,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

摘　　要：交通事故预测对于提高交通安全管理水平具有重要意义,通过对传统交通事故预测方法的对比分析,提出了基于模糊逻辑的城市道路交通事故预测模型,并结合哈尔滨市133条主次干道的交通及交通事故数据对模型进行了训练及检验,最终确定了含有41条有效模糊控制规则的模糊逻辑预测模型.模型检验结果表明,应用模糊逻辑预测模型预测得到的事故数与实际事故数之间有很好的对应关系.因此,采用模糊逻辑理论进行道路交通事故预测具有一定的可行性.此外,依据模糊逻辑事故预测模型提出了安全改进因子的概念,可据此查明高风险道路上的突出事故影响因素,从而为改善交通安全提供合理建议.Traffic accidents prediction plays an important role in improving traffic safety management. In this paper, a fuzzy logic based model is developed for urban traffic accident prediction. The model is trained and tested by the traffic and traffic accidents data from 133 city roads in Harbin. And then, the fuzzy logic prediction model with 41 effective rules is obtained. The test result shows a good relationship between the observed and predicted data, which proves the feasibility of the proposed method. In addition, the concept of safety improvement factor is put forward, that can find the prominent influencing factors in high-rlsk road and offer useful suggestions to improve road safety status.

关 键 词：城市道路 事故预测 模糊逻辑 控制规则 突出影响因素 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]