收入驱动的居民国内旅游模型研究  

Income-driven Model Research on Chinese Urban and Rural Residents Domestic Tourism

作　　者：孙根年[1] 薛佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《商业研究》2009年第5期13-16,共4页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目;项目编号:03BJY0088

摘　　要：城市与农村居民国内旅游客流量变化是居民人口与人均可支配收入的函数,人均收入的弹性系数高于人口。居民国内旅游出游率与人均可支配收入成对数直线关系,农村居民出游率在人均2000元处有一个转折点;居民国内旅游的客流量统计值与C-D模型理论值的相对偏差,与扣除通货膨胀后的实际收入增长率具有时间序列的相关性,其中城市居民国内客流量与上年收入增长率有关,农村居民客流量与当年收入增长率有关。Based on the statistical data from 1989 to 2006 as well as the models of Cobb - Douglas function and urbanization index, the paper analyzes the tourist flow and travel rate with Chinese average income. The results show that, the urban and rural tourist flow reflects Cobb - Douglas function of population amount and the average income, the income elasticity coefficient is higher than that of population amount, the relationship between travel rate and the average income involves the log - linear models, the rural travel rate is in a point mutation at 2000 Yuan. Between the theoretic city and rural inhabitants＇ travel rate and the C - D model there exists a relative deviation which is also related to the time series with the deduction inflation rate of real income increment rate. The results can provide the scientific basis for the quantitative forecast on Chinese domestic tourism.

关 键 词：国内旅游 城市与农村 C-D生产函数 出游率 收入增长率 

分 类 号：F592.6[经济管理—旅游管理]