Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Regional Marine Ecosystem Services Value  

作　　者：SHI Honghua ZHENG Wei WANG Zongling DING Dewen 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology of Ministry of Education and Institute ofApplied Mathematics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, P. R. China [2]First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, Qingdao 266061, P. R. China

出　　处：《Journal of Ocean University of China》2009年第2期150-154,共5页中国海洋大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：funded by the Marine Public Welfare Pro-ject of China (Nos. 200705029, 200805080);the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2002CB412406);SOA-funded Program (No. 908-02-04-03)

摘　　要：Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and supporting services. The human species, while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology, is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales, which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices, yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices, yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis, a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover, sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.

关 键 词：marine ecosystem ecosystem services value sensitivity analysis uncertainty analysis 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学] S718.56[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]