京津冀地区粮食供需的空间格局变化特征  

Spatial Pattern Changes of Grain Supply and Demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：冯跃[1,2] 鲁春霞[1] 马蓓蓓[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第4期566-573,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划重点项目“:可持续发展功能分区技术开发”(编号:2006BAC18B01)

摘　　要：本研究以地级市和直辖市为研究单元,利用1980年～2005年京津冀地区的粮食生产、耕地面积和人口统计数据,通过计算各市粮食产量的比重以及粮食生产区位熵,并利用更具表现力的值定面积图的方法制图,分析该地区粮食供需格局的变化特征。1980年以来,京津冀地区的粮食生产大致经历了波动上升期(1980年～1998年)、快速下降期(1999年～2003年)和恢复增长期(2004年～2005年)三个阶段;耕地面积持续下降,其中北京市的耕地面积自1995年下降速度加快。包括北京市、天津市、张家口市、承德市、秦皇岛市、唐山市、廊坊市等在内的京津冀北部地区的粮食生产相对于整个区域萎缩明显,而南部地区成为粮食生产增长的中心。20世纪90年代中后期以来,京津冀北部地区粮食供需缺口增加,多属于粮食供需紧平衡区和缺粮区,南部地区的小康水平余粮量增加,粮食供需的空间极化趋势加剧。Basing on the statistic data concerning grain production, cultivated land and population of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1980 to 2005, and taking prefecture-level city and municipality city as research unit, the variation characteristics of grain supply and demand spatial pattern was analyzed through calculating the proportion and location entropy of grain production for each city. Since 1980, grain production of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region had experienced a process of ＂wavelike rising- rapid declining- recovery increasing＂. Hebei province and Tianjin had similar processes to the whole region. The grain production of Beijing increased at a fluctuating pattern before 1993, but after then the production declined obviously. The area of cultivated land decreased continuously, especially Beijing. Since 1995, the cultivated land area of Beijing decreased more rapidly.The grain production of northern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region （including Beijing, Tianjin, Zhangjiakou, Chengde, Qinhuangdao, Tangshan and Langfang） had shrinked obviously relative to the whole region since 1980, manifested as most cities in the northern part had experienced a falling process in food production. This could be reflected by the cartograms of grain output, changes on proportion and location quotient of grain production in each city. The general tendency of grain production in most southern cities was increasing in comparison, and the southern part of this region had become the center of grain production and growth.Through analyzing the spatial distribution and sequential characteristics of per capita share of grain, as well as changes of surplus grain at well-off level from 1980 to 2005 ,we could conclude that since the late 90＇s in Twentieth Century, the polarization tendency of grain supply and demand had become more serious. The condition of grain supply and demand in the northern part was strained, and the average per capita share of grain was below 400 kg all along. Before 1999, the surplus grain at well-level exp

关 键 词：京津冀 粮食供需 空间格局 粮食生产区位熵 比较统计地图 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]