大连气候变暖及其对农业的影响  

Climate warming and its effects on agricultural production in Dalian

作　　者：侯国成[1] 王秀萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连市气象局,大连116001

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2009年第5期933-937,共5页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2007BAC03A01)

摘　　要：选取大连地区7个观测站1961—2007年历年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、≥0℃积温、≥10℃积温、<0℃负积温和无霜冻等指标,统计分析了近47年其变化特征,研究了大连地区热量资源对气候变暖的响应及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、≥0℃积温、≥10℃积温1988—2007年比1961—1987年的平均值明显增高(多),尤以最低气温增幅最大,冬季升温幅度大于夏季,大连地区气候变暖主要来自最低气温升高的贡献;<0℃负积温绝对值明显减少;初霜推后,终霜提前,无霜期日数增多;20世纪80年代后期大连气候明显变暖,尤其是21世纪初异常偏暖事件频发,热量资源增加,对冬季大棚蔬菜等设施农业的生产有利,病虫等越冬存活率上升,农业投入增加,气候变暖对大连地区农业影响是利弊并存。By using the 1961-2007 observation data of monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature, accumulative temperature of 〈 0 ℃, ≥ 0℃ and ≥ 10℃, and frost-free period from 7 meteorological stations in Dalian, the variation characteristics of these climate indices in last 47 years were analyzed, and the responses of Dalian thermal resources to climate warming as well as the effects of climate warming on the agricultural production in Dalian were Studied. In 1988-2007, the monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature, and accumulative temperature of ≥0℃ and ≥10 ℃ in Dalian increased markedly, compared with those in 1961-1987. The monthly mean minimum temperature had the largest increment, and the increment was larger in winter than in summer. Therefore, the climate warming in Dalian mainly came from the contribution of the increase of the minimum temperature in winter. The absolute value of accumulative temperature of 〈 0℃ decreased obviously, the first frost date postponed, while the last frost date advanced, resulting an obvious increase of the days of frost-free period. Since the late 1980s, especially in the early 21st century, abnormally warming events more frequently occurred in Dalian, the thermal resources being increased, which would be favorable to the facility agricultural. On the other hand, the survival rates of overwintering diseases and pests increased. Consequently, there would be both advantages and disadvantages of climate warming to the agricultural production in Dalian.

关 键 词：气候变暖 农业生产 大连 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]