传染病预警基线值的探讨研究  

DISCUSSIONS OF WARNING BASELINE VALUE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

作　　者：陈正利[1] 许璐[1] 朱焕文[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南省疾病预防控制中心传染病所,郑州450016

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2009年第9期1723-1724,1726,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]早期识别和探查传染病暴发流行,提高突发公共卫生事件应对能力。[方法]以痢疾、甲肝为例,利用2001～2005年历史数据,对传染病历史平均发病水平予以定量化,采用移动平均法建立不同百分位上预警值以及预警控制图,确定合理预警基线值。[结果]计算传染病在P25,P50,P75不同百分位数上的预警值,根据疾病发病分布特点,以“第75百分位数”作为预警基线值,以“第90百分位数”作为预警控制线。[结论]采用移动平均法可以较好表达传染病在不同百分位上的预警界值,合理预警基线值确定为P75。[Objective] To early identify and detect an epidemic of infectious diseases and to improve public health response capacities. [Methods] According to the historical data of dysentery and Hepatitis A from 2001-2005, the historical levels of infectious diseases incidence were made quantification. Adopting the moving average method constructed warning baseline values and control chart on different percentile and determined reasonable warning baseline value. [Results] The different percentile of infectious disease warning values were computed such as the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile. According to the characteristic of infectious diseases, the 75th and the 90th percentile of warning values was respectively warning baseline value and warning line of control. [Conclusion] The moving average method can express the different percentile of warning values and the 75th percentile of warning value is reasonable warning baseline value.

关 键 词：传染病 预警基线值 移动平均法 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]