强台风黑格比的路径和降水诊断分析  

Diagnostic Analysis on the Track and Precipitation of Strong Typhoon Hagupit

作　　者：杨昌贤[1] 陈红[1] 郭冬艳[1] 李云艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象台,海口570203

出　　处：《气象》2009年第4期76-86,I0004-I0005,共13页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：利用1°×1°的NCEP全球再分析资料和常规气象要素、中尺度自动站、地面加密探测和多普勒雷达等资料,综合分析环流背景对强台风黑格比的路径和降水变化的影响,并对黑格比影响过程的物理量特征进行诊断分析。结果表明:(1)台风路径稳定西北偏西行的主要原因是500hPa副高为带状分布,副高南侧边缘偏东和东南引导气流加强,台风北侧最大东风风速与南侧的最大西风风速之差增大;(2)多普勒雷达基本反射率分析发现对流单体回波在雨带的上游(海上)发展,移动到下游(陆地)迅速减弱;空中垂直液态含水量对于台风降水的演变趋势、降水量估测和降水落区有较好的指示意义。在台风暴雨系统中垂直累积液态含水量产品,由于液态含水量的密实程度不同,降水效率差异极大,有时可使降水量的差异达到2.5倍甚至更大;多普勒雷达产品1小时降水量与实际降水落区和降水量有较好的一致性,而降水落区的表现最好。1小时降水量产品与雷达反射率以及空中垂直液态含水量产品有着很好的对应关系。(3)"黑格比"在西北偏西移动过程中其垂直运动、涡度、水汽通量散度等各物理量场均表现出有利于降水加大的特征。Based on 1°×1°NCEP reanalysis data of 2008, conventional meteorological data, automatic station data, surface intensive observations and Doppler radar echo, the influences of circulation background on the track and precipitation of strong typhoon Hagupit are synthetically analyzed, and the physical characteristics are also diagnostic analyzed. The results are as follows： （1） The main reason why typhoon move west-northwest steadily is that on 500hPa level, the zonalsubtropical high on the north strengthens the east flow and rear southeast flow, and the differences between maximum east wind on the north and maximum west wind on the south increase; （2） Analysis of Doppler radar base reflectivity products shows that the convective echo in rain belt develops on the upstream sea, but quickly weakens when it moves downstream towards to the land. The vertical integrated liquid water （VIL） is a good indicator to the estimate of precipitation both on amount and area. In the typhoon rainfall system, the different density of liquid water in cloud can make big difference in precipitation with same VIL, sometimes the difference may reach 2.5 times or more. Doppler radar product OHP （one hour precipitation） is consistent with actual precipitation area and amount very well, especially with precipitation area, and OHP has a good corresponding relationship with both R and VIL products; （3） Physical characteristics, such as vertical motion, vorticity and water vapor flux divergence, all are in favor of precipitation increase when ＂Hagupit＂ moves west-northwest.

关 键 词：强台风 路径 降水 诊断分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.8