经济增长、对外贸易与环境污染:联立方程的估计  

Economic Growth,Foreign Trade and Environment——A Simultaneous Equation Estimation

作　　者：陈红蕾[1] 陈秋峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632 [2]惠州学院经济管理系,广东惠州516015

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2009年第3期29-34,共6页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国务院侨办人文社科研究项目(项目编号:05GQBYB007)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：本文采用Huang and Labys的模型思路,通过建立一个同时包括污染方程与产出方程的联立方程组研究经济、贸易和环境之间的相互关系。研究发现我国工业二氧化硫的排放走势比较符合环境库兹涅茨倒U曲线假说,且目前尚处于倒U型曲线的左半段,即经济贸易的增长可能导致环境质量的进一步下降;现阶段我国产业结构的变动是影响环境质量的重要因素,特别是制造业结构趋重的格局不利于环境的改善;贸易自由化并未加剧环境的恶化,可以说"污染避难所"假说现阶段在我国不成立。最后在上述结论的基础上,得出一些有益的政策启示。According to Huang and Labys＇ model, the paper formulates a two-equation simultaneous model to investigate the interrelationship between economic growth, foreign trade and environmental quality. The main findings are as follows： there is an inverted--U shaped relationship between per capita income and industrial S02 emissions, and now we still stay on the left side of the curve, which means economic （trade） growths may harm the environment further more. At present stage, the industrial structure is one of most important factors that influence the environment; trade liberalization does not worsen the environmental quality, and it seems that ＂the Pollution Haven Hypothesis ＂is not true in China. Based on the results, the paper gives some helpful suggestions.

关 键 词：经济增长 对外贸易 环境污染 联立方程 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]