基于系统动力学的企业物流外包耦合情景分析  

System-dynamics-based, Coupled Scenario Analysis of Enterprise Logistics Outsourcing and Development Strategy

作　　者：赖明勇[1] 许荻迪[1] 罗呈[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学物流信息与仿真技术湖南省重点实验室,长沙410079

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2009年第10期3044-3050,3061,共8页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：高等学校博士点基金课题(20050532029)

摘　　要：物流外包策略是影响企业长期利润的重要因素。通过分析物流外包方案与企业现状之间的相互制约、相互影响的关系,及其对企业长期利润的耦合影响,建立基于系统动力学的企业物流外包决策模型,并进行了模型有效性检验。该模型在企业现状和发展战略环境下定量决策物流的分环节部分外包方案,具有非线性和动态特征。通过进行情景仿真分析,探讨了物流外包决策与企业战略对长期利润的耦合影响,分析结果证明几种典型的发展模式都具有显著的比较优势和缺陷,企业应根据自身实际,选择合适的发展模式以优化物流外包决策和长期利润。Enterprises＇ logistics outsourcing policy and current situations interact with each other and finally influence their long-term profits. By analyzing the relationship between them, a logistics outsourcing unified decision model was designed based on System Dynamics, with its validity tested. The model shows features of nonlinearity and dynamics, which quantificationally decides multistage partial logistics outsourcing plan under enterprise current situations and development strategies. According to results of Scenario Analysis discussing the action of development strategy in the Coupled system, each enterprise development strategy has its own advantages and disadvantages, so enterprises should choose appropriate development strategy to optimize their logistics outsourcing and achieve maximization of long-term profit considering their current situations.

关 键 词：物流外包 系统动力学 物流仿真 情景分析 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]