13个IPCC AR4模式对中国区域近40a气候模拟能力的评估  

Simulation Ability Evaluation of Surface Temperature and Precipitation by Thirteen IPCC AR 4 Coupled Climate Models in China during 1961—2000

作　　者：刘敏[1,2] 江志红[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]上海市气象局上海中心气象台,上海200030

出　　处：《南京气象学院学报》2009年第2期256-268,共13页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40675043);江苏省气象灾害重点实验室资助项目(KLME050209)

摘　　要：利用中国区域550个站点逐日地面气温及降水资料,评估了参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次报告(the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change,IPCCAR4)的13个新一代全球气候系统模式及多模式集合对中国近40 a(1961—2000年)地面气温和降水的模拟能力,结果表明:最新全球模式对中国地区地面气温年变化及空间分布的模拟结果均较好,但在整个模拟区域地面气温模拟值系统性偏低,东部地区模拟效果好于中西部;对于降水,大部分模式能模拟出中国降水的年变化及空间分布特征,但模拟的区域性差别较大,多数模式对中国东部季风区夏季雨带北抬的过程有一定的模拟能力,但模拟雨带位置偏北。新一代全球模式能模拟出温度的线性变化趋势,但对温度及降水的年际变率模拟能力较低。比较多种评估指标得出,模式集合对温度的模拟效果最好,模式UKMO-HadCM3对降水的模拟效果最好。Based on the observed monthly surface temperature and daily precipitation of 550 stations in China from 1961 to 2000,and the surface temperature and precipitation simulated by 13 IPCC AR4（the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change） models and their multi-model ensemble（MME） mean,the simulation abilities of the 13 models are evaluated.Results show that the IPCC AR4 models certainly have a capability of modeling the surface temperature and precipitation changes in China.The annual variation and spatial distribution of surface temperature are well simulated,but the simulations are systematically smaller than the observations in the simulated region with the well simulation in the eastern China than that in the midwestern China.The annual variation and spatial distribution of China precipitation can be well simulated by the most models,but the simulations have the large differences among the different simulated regions.The most models can well simulate the northward process of summer monsoon rain belt in eastern China,but the simulated rain belt lies poleward of its observed position.The updated IPCC AR4 models can simulate the linear trend of surface temperature,but they have poor performances in simulating the interannual variability of surface temperature and precipitation.Comparisons of many evaluation indexes indicate that the surface temperature simulation of the multi-model ensemble（MME） is the best,while the precipitation simulated by UKMO-HadCM3 is the best among the 13 models and MME.

关 键 词：IPCC AR4 全球气候系统模式 地面气温 降水 模式评估 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467