增长模繁殖法在华南暴雨中期集合预报中的应用  

APPLICATION OF THE METHOD OF BGM IN MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST FOR A SOUTH CHINA RAINSTORM

作　　者：关吉平[1] 张立凤[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏南京211101

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2009年第2期246-250,共5页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究项目"我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究(2004CB418304)";解放军理工大学气象学院博士启动基金共同资助

摘　　要：采用增长模繁殖法和全球谱模式T106L19对2005年6月发生在华南的暴雨过程进行了中期集合预报试验。结果表明:相对于单一的确定性预报,集合预报能给出更多的预报信息;各成员的降水预报、降水概率预报等丰富的预报产品能够给暴雨预报提供更有价值的信息,减少漏报率,对低压槽线和副高脊线等关键环流系统的预报,集合预报结果更为接近实况。A medium-range ensemble forecast experiment for a southern China rainstorm that happened in June 2005 has been conducted using a global spectrum model T106L19. The results show that the ensemble forecast can provide much more forecast information than a single and deterministic forecast; The various forecast products available from ensemble forecasts, such as member precipitation forecasts, precipitation probability forecast and etc., can provide more valuable information and decrease the rate of false alarms. For the forecasts of key circulation systems such as trough lines and subtropical high ridge lines, ensemble forecast results are closer to the real atmosphere.

关 键 词：中期集合预报 华南暴雨 增长模繁殖法 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]