应用灰色模型预测浙江省孕产妇死亡趋势  

Application of the grey system GM(1,1) forecast model on maternal mortality trends in Zhejiang

作　　者：吴巍巍[1] 邱丽倩[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学医学院附属妇产科医院妇女保健部,浙江杭州310006

出　　处：《中国妇幼保健》2009年第13期1764-1765,共2页Maternal and Child Health Care of China

摘　　要：目的:了解浙江省近年来孕产妇死亡率的变化趋势,为卫生行政部门决策提供参考。方法:对浙江省2000～2005年孕产妇死亡监测资料建立灰色模型。结果:求得浙江省孕产妇死亡率(1/10万)的灰色预测模型为:Y(t+1)=-256.07e-0.068 8t+275.39。拟合检验显示该模型拟合精度好(P>0.95),平均相对误差较小,能够较好地预测浙江省孕产妇死亡趋势。结论:未来5年内浙江省孕产妇死亡率呈逐步下降趋势。Objective： To observe the maternal mortality trends of Zhejiang in recent years, provide some references for health administrative departments. Methods： Based on maternal mortality trends from 2000 to 2005, the grey systemic Gm（ 1, 1 ） forecast model was established. Results ： The grey systemic forecast mode] was Y （ t ＋ 1 ） = - 256. 07e^-0.0688t, ＋ 275.39, the precision was better （ P 〉 0. 95 ）, mean relative error was small. Conclusion： The maternal mortality in the future five years will decline continuously.

关 键 词：灰色模型 孕产妇死亡率 趋势 

分 类 号：R173[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]