农民收入增长:基于农产品贸易视角分析  

Increasing of farmers' income:based on the analysis of agricultural trade perspective

作　　者：汪艳涛[1] 王记志[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学管理学院,湖南湘潭411201 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《科技与管理》2009年第3期33-36,共4页Science-Technology and Management

基　　金：全国统计科学研究计划项目(2006B48);湖南科技大学研究生创新基金项目(S080133)

摘　　要：在构建VAR模型的基础上,利用1985～2007年的统计数据,从现代协整理论出发,考察了我国农产品出口、农产品进口与农民收入之间长期动态均衡关系。分析结果表明:从长期看,它们之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,农产品出口是农民收入增加的Granger原因。从短期看,农民收入的短期波动受农产品进出口短期变化的影响,且农产品出口的短期均衡调整力度更明显。On the foundation of vector autoregression model,this paper uses the statistics data from 1985 to 2007 and the theory of co-integration to analyze the long-term relationship between dynamic balance of agricultural product export,imports and farmer＇s income. The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the three. The agricultural product export is a Grang correction is very quick from the short fluctuation export fluctuation on farmer＇s income fluctuation is er reason to farmer＇s income. In the short run,the speed of the to long-term equilibrium, and the effect of the agricultural product significant.

关 键 词：农产品贸易 农民增收 长期均衡 短期波动 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]