三江源地区雪灾风险预警指标体系及风险管理研究  

Study on warning indicator system of snow disaster and risk management in headwaters region

作　　者：张国胜[1] 伏洋[2] 颜亮东[2] 刘宝康[2] 石德军 杨力军 

机构地区：[1]青海省气象局,青海西宁810001 [2]青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁810001 [3]青海省畜牧厅项目管理中心,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《草业科学》2009年第5期144-150,共7页Pratacultural Science

摘　　要：利用三江源地区越冬期雪灾历史资料及调查资料,深层次分析了诱发雪灾的孕灾环境、致灾因子与孕灾体,以进行风险辨识。确定了高寒牧区越冬期风险主要是由自然因素、生物因素、社会因素和管理等因素相互叠加后构成,从雪灾风险分析的角度构建了适合三江源地区越冬期风险预警指标体系,并采用定性与定量相结合的方法对各预警指标进行定量化与分级。在此基础上,结合畜牧业生产管理中的活动内容,将冬季风险管理分为:家畜管理、草地管理、饲草供应、草地资源评估、冬季风险预报,并分析了各种畜牧业生产活动在风险管理内容中的重要值。Based on historical and survey data of snow disaster in winter of the headwaters area, the environment which caused snow disaster, the hazard factors and the objects were analyzed in the risk identification. The risks during winter in alpine region are mainly made up of the mutual superposition factors such as natural factors, biological factors, social and management factors. Warning indicator system was built up from the risk analysis of the snow disaster, and was quantized and ranked with qualitative and quantitative methods. On this basis, combining the content of animal management activities, the risk management in winter was divided into livestock management, grassland management, forage supply, grassland resource assessment and winter risk assessment, important value of various livestock production activities in risk management was analyzed.

关 键 词：雪灾风险 预警指标体系 风险管理 三江源地区 

分 类 号：S811.1[农业科学—畜牧学]