基于分层总和法的路基沉降时序规律多元非线性回归分析  

Multivariate Nonlinear Regression Analyses of Time Series Law to Subgrade Settlement of High-speed Railway Based on the Foundation of Layer-summation

作　　者：胡荣光[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西电力工业勘察设计研究院,南宁530023

出　　处：《铁道工程学报》2009年第3期7-10,26,共5页Journal of Railway Engineering Society

基　　金：铁道部科技研究开发计划(2005K002-B-6)

摘　　要：研究目的:由于客运专线运行速度快、技术标准高,必须严格控制路基变形。而路基变形是多种因素综合作用的结果,如何全面准确地分析路基沉降的影响因素并精确预测路基沉降规律显得尤为重要。研究结论:基于分层总和法基本理论,建立了任意时刻沉降量与填筑高度、弹性模量、压缩层厚度、时间之间的多元非线性回归方程,给出了考虑整个时序数列数据进行多元非线性回归分析的方法,并采用现场实测数据进行工程验证,证明了其广泛的适用性。Research purposes：The subgrade deformation of high-speed railway must be controlled very strictly because of the high train speed on the railway and high technical standard required by the railway.Since many factors synthetically contribute to the deformation,so it is very important to synthetically and accurately analyze the factors involved and predict the time series law to the subgrade settlement.Research conclusions：The multivariate nonlinear regression equation is established with the foundation of layer-summation method to illustrate the eternal relations among the time,settlement deformation,filling height,elastic modulus,and thickness of the compressed layer.What＇s more,the methods of multiple non-linear regression analysis of the time series data are given,and the applications show the methods can be wide used.

关 键 词：路基沉降 固结度 多元非线性 回归分析 

分 类 号：U213.157[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]