西北干旱半干旱过渡区近50年气候变化特征分析及对粮食产量的影响  

Analysis of Climatic Change Characteristics and Impact on Grain Yield in the Northwest Arid and Semi-arid Transition Region in the Recent 50 Years

作　　者：高蓉[1,2] 张燕霞[2] 石圆圆[2] 陈少勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省白银市气象局,甘肃白银730900

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第14期6493-6497,6519,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：甘肃省气象局2007年青年优秀人才基金资助

摘　　要：根据气象资料及粮食产量资料采用线性倾向、突变分析等方法分析,结果表明,干旱半干旱过渡区近50年年降水量呈现明显下降趋势,就季节而言冬、春季略增,夏、秋季减少且秋季降水在1986年发生减小突变,从年代际变化看,近10年出现了剧烈下降;温度呈现明显上升趋势,且大大高于全国平均增幅,1994年有一次显著突变,在各季中,冬季季增温最为显著,因此,由冷湿向暖干化转变是过渡区气候变化的最主要特征;受气候暖干化影响,粮食气象产量呈现明显下降趋势,近年来呈现降幅加剧趋势;利用逐步回归方法建立粮食产量预测模型。According to meteorological data and grain yield data, using linear trend and mutation analysis and other methods, the study makes an analysis and the result showed that the annual precipitation presented a significant decreasing trend in the arid and semi-arld transition region in the recent 50 years. In term of seasons, the annual precipitation increased slightly in winter and spring, and decreased in summer and autumn, it appeared in decreasing mutation of autumn precipitation in 1986. According to the decadal change, severe decline has arisen in the past 10 years. Air temperature presented a significant increased trend and it was much higher than the national average increase, it has a significant mutation in 1994. In each season, the seasonal warming was the most significant in winter. Therefore the transformation from cold and wet to warm and dry is the main character of climatic change in the arid and semi-arid transition region. Influenced by climate warming and drying, grain meteorological yield presented a significant decreasing trend. Decreasing amplitude presented aggravated in recent years. Grain yield prediction model was established by using stepwise regression method.

关 键 词：过渡区 气候变化 分析 粮食产量 影响 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]