地震前兆复杂性成因机理研究的讨论(二)——地震前兆复杂性成因机理  

STUDY ON GENETIC MECHANISM OF SEISMIC PRECURSORY COMPLEXITY (Ⅱ)—Genetic mechanism of complexity of seismic precursors

作　　者：焦明若[1] 张国民[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局分析预报中心,中国北京100036

出　　处：《地震》1998年第2期112-118,共7页Earthquake

摘　　要：针对前兆复杂性的种种表现 ,作者从震源、构造应力场、断裂力学、前兆监测等方面探讨了前兆复杂性产生的可能原因。认为前兆复杂性是客观存在的 ,与共性一起构成前兆的二重性。因此在研究前兆时 ,既要研究共性 ,也要研究复杂性 ,才能更好地掌握或认识前兆。同时从复杂性中再寻求普遍性 ,进一步完善孕震理论和开展新的分析预报方法 ;造成前兆复杂性的根本原因是孕震的物理力学过程的复杂性 ,其中包括地质构造、孕震环境、动力学过程、震源破坏机制、破裂发展过程等多方面的复杂因素 ;在地震前兆复杂性中 ,短临阶段的地震前兆复杂性更为突出 ;试图寻找地震与前兆一一对应的理想化情况是困难的。“有异常无地震”情况也不能简单地认为是干扰 ,它是构造块体不均匀应力场发展演化过程的结果 ;虽然“场兆”、“源兆”观点有助于分析前兆复杂性 ,但在实际中实现严格区分尚待深入研究 ;面对我国中短期地震预报的成功率只有 2 0 %左右的现实 ,应大力强化基础理论的研究 。In view of various behaviours of seismic precursory complexity, this paper probes into the genesis of precursory complexity. The complexity is studied from four different angles of earthquake source, tectonic field, fracture mechanics and precursory monitoring. It is recognized that the seismic precursory complexity exists objectively. Together with its regularity, the precursor is characterized of duality. We need to study both its regularity and complexity in the research of precursors so as to better understand and know it. Meanwhile, we should try to find the regularity from the complexity to further improve the earthquake preparation theory and develop new analytic and predictive methods. The basic cause resulting in the complexity of seismic precursors is the complexity of physical dynamic process of earthquake preparation, including quite a few of complicated factors, such as geological tectonics, seismogenic environment, dynamic process, focal failure mechanism and rupture growth process; Among the precursory complexities, the one exhibit more distinctly at short term and imminent stage; It is difficult to find one to one correspondence between the earthquake and the precursor; The situation that “there is an anomaly but no earthquake occurs” can not simply be thought as interference. It may result from the development of the inhomogeneous stress field. Although the view point of “field” and “source” is helpful to analyze the complexity of seismic precursors, it is still necessary to be further studied to distinguish them from each other. Facing the reality that the success rate of earthquake prediction reaches only 20% or so, we should consolidate the fundamental theoretical research, and develop high performance seismological and precursory observational instruments.

关 键 词：地震前兆 复杂性 震源 场源 前兆监测 成因机理 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]