汇率制度改革、人民币升值与我国通货膨胀  

Exchange Rate Regime Reform,RMB Appreciation and Inflation in China

作　　者：骆振心[1] 李忠[2] 王新兵[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093 [2]浙江财经学院金融学院,浙江杭州310012 [3]山东经济学院管理学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2009年第5期97-103,共7页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(项目批准号:70732002)

摘　　要：本文主要针对汇率制度改革以后人民币汇率传递效应对我国物价水平的影响进行实证研究。在理论分析的基础上,我们构建了一个包括宏观经济冲击、货币政策环境、物价水平等这些相关因素的递归SVAR模型。研究发现,人民币的名义有效汇率上升会导致我国物价总水平显著下降,这表明人民币汇率传递效应能有效降低我国的通货膨胀。本文建议央行应当停止人民币升值进程,防止经济运行风险。This paper mainly studies whether the RMB exchange rate pass- through effect have an impact on domestic price after exchange rate regime reform. Based on theory analysis, the authors form a recursion SVAR including these factors such as macroeconomic shocks, monetary policy environment, and domestic prices. The empirical result shows that the RMB appreciation leads to lower domestic prices; this means that RMB exchange rate pass-through has powerful influence on Chinese domestic prices. The author suggests that RMB should cease the process of appreciation, and prevent the economic risk.

关 键 词：汇率传递 宏观经济冲击 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]