山东省三次产业就业需求结构分析与预测研究  

The Labor Demand Structure Analysis and Forecast of the Three Industries in Shandong

作　　者：李国锋[1,2] 刘黎明[1] 陈绪根[2] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学,北京100026 [2]山东经济学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2009年第3期386-394,共9页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：山东省政府委托项目“山东省高校人才供给与产业需求预测”(2006)

摘　　要：本文采用成分数据建模方法,构建了山东省三次产业就业结构预测模型和偏最小二乘通径分析模型,并利用所构建的模型对山东省2007年～2010年三次产业就业结构进行了预测分析,分析了山东省三次产业就业需求结构与产业投资结构、三次产业产值结构之间的关联关系.研究发现,山东省第一、二、三次产业就业需求结构由2000年的(53.1%:23.6%:23.3%)逐步优化,到2010年将演变为(23.6%:43.5%:32.9%),与现代产业发展规律相比还滞后很多.第二产业就业需求呈增长趋势,与我国经济发展处于工业化中期相符,为适应这种发展,第三产业就业比重尚显不足,急需大力发展第三产业以促进就业需求.通径分析模型测算结果显示,山东省产业就业需求结构发展呈现出较明显的投资拉动模式.其中,第一、三产业的投资对GDP,GDP对就业均有较强的拉动作用,且拉动效率较高;第二产业的投资对GDP有较强的拉动作用,随着制造产业的技术进步,第二产业产值的增大将通过促进第三产业的发展拉动就业.加大对三次产业的投资特别是第三产业的投资以增强第三产业吸纳就业的能力是提高就业需求的有效途径.This paper uses compositional data method to construct the three industries＇ employment structure predicted model and the partial least squares path analysis model. With the model, it gives a three industries＇ forecast analysis of Shandong from 2007 to 2010, which analyzes the relationships among investment, GDP and employment structures. Research finds that the labor demand structure of three industries in Shandong will gradually optimize from the year 2000（53.1%： 23.6%： 23.3%）to the year 2010（23.6%： 43.5%： 32.9%）, which is lagging behind the development of modern industries yet. The secondary industrial employment shows growth trend which is in line with the medium-term industrialization of China, to adapt to the trend of development, the proportion of the tertiary industrial employment demand is still significantly less than the urgent need, so it must vigorously promote the development of the tertiary industry. Path Analysis Model shows that the development of employment structure in Shandong is showing a more obvious investment-led model. Of these, the stimulating effects of investment to GDP and GDP to employment are stronger in the Primary and tertiary industries and the efficiency is higher, it also shows a higher stimulating effect of investment to GDP in the secondary industry, with the development of the manufacturing industry technology advancement, Increasing the value of the secondary industry will promot the employment by stimulating the development of the tertiary industry. In Order to strengthen the tertiary industry buying in employment, increasing investment particularly in the tertiary industry is an effective way to improve the employment.

关 键 词：成分数据 偏最小二乘通径分析 就业结构 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]