美国白蛾危险性评估研究  

Studies of Risk Assessment of Hypanthia cunea (Drury)

作　　者：李淑贤[1] 高宝嘉[1,2] 张东风[3] 宁超[1] 屈金亮 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学,河北保定071000 [2]河北北方学院,河北张家口075000 [3]河北省林业科学研究院,石家庄050061 [4]河北省森林病虫防治站,石家庄050000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2009年第10期202-206,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(批准号30771739)

摘　　要：对入侵害虫美国白蛾Hypanthia cunea (Drury)进行危险性评估,可以了解其适生区分布与发生风险概率,对其监测与防治有重大意义。利用GARP(Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction Modeling System)生态位模型预测美国白蛾在中国的适生区,并应用信息扩散模糊数学方法,对河北省部分地区美国白蛾进行危险性评估。结果表明:美国白蛾发生灾害风险评估值随着灾害指数的增大而减小,美国白蛾在中国的适生区分布范围:21.20°N～46.33°N,97.80°E～132.11°E和36.81°N～41.8°5N,76.00°E～94.66°E(新疆的部分地区)。基于GARP生态位模型及信息扩散理论,针对入侵物种已知分布数据对其进行危险性评估,对害虫的监测、防治、预警提供依据,具有广泛的应用前景。To assess the risk of the invasive pest Hypanthia cunea （Drury）, to know its potential distribution and the ratio of occurrence, make great sense for monitoring and controlling. Using GARP （Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction Modeling）, The article predicted suitable distribution area of Hypanthia cunea （Drury） in China, And the risk of Hypanthia cunea （Drury） in part area of Hebei province was assessed with fuzzy method based on information diffusion principle. The result showed that the values of risk decreased with the increasing of disaster index levels, the potential suitable distribution is from 21.20° N-46.33° N, 97.80° E- 132.11°E and 36.81°N-41.85°N, 76.00°E-94.66°E （part areas of Xinjiang）. Based on GARP and fuzzy method based on information diffusion principle, assessed the risk of the invasive pest using known distributing data, offering gist for monitoring, controlling and forecasting, have abroad application foreground.

关 键 词：美国白蛾 适生区 GARP 风险评估 

分 类 号：Q968[生物学—昆虫学]