采用树木年轮资料重建山东沂山地区200多年来的湿润指数  

UTLIZING TREE RING CHRONOLOGIES TO RECONSTRUCT 200 YEARS'MOISTURE INDEX IN YISHAN, SHANDONG PROVINCE

作　　者：沈长泗[1] 陈金敏[1] 张志华[2] 吴祥定[3] 张佩云 王桂岩 

机构地区：[1]山东省气象科学研究所 [2]国家气候中心 [3]中国科学院地理研究所 [4]山东省林业科学研究所

出　　处：《地理研究》1998年第2期150-156,共7页Geographical Research

基　　金：山东省自然基金

摘　　要：在中国，尤其在中国西北部地区，树轮年表是古气候信息的一个重要来源。由于某种原因，中国东部地区少有树轮研究工作。该文通过运引ＡＲＳＴＡＮ程序，建立并研究了山东境内沂山地区的树轮主年表（１７５０～１９９２）。树轮和气候要素的响应面分析得出沂山地区的树轮生长和温度降水呈非线性相关，因此使用传统方法重建单个气候因子是不合理的。通过响应函数和回归分析，５月至８月份的湿润指数（Ｐ／Ｔ）被确定为重建对象，该湿润指数值代表了温度和降水对树轮生长的共同影响，且相关性很高，远超过信度检验。利用线性回归方法，获得重建湿润指数的预报方程，用树木年轮年表重建了自１７５０年以来的沂山地区逐年５月～８月湿润指数的变化。分析了沂山地区湿润指数重建的可靠性。ree ring chronologies are a major source of paleoclimatic information in China, especially in Northwest China. For some reasons, there are seldom studies about the tree ring in eastern China. In this paper the major tree ring chronology (1750~1992) in Yishan, Shandong Province, was analyzed by running program ARSTAN. The response surfaces of tree ring and climate indicate that growth of tree ring in Yishan mountain is nonlinear correlated with precipitation and temperature. It is unreasonable to reconstruct climatic variables separately using traditional methods. The reconstructed moisture index (P/T) during May to August, in which both temperature and precipitation influence the treering growth, was estimated from response function and regression model. The relationship between tree ring and moisture index (May to August) is obvious. The predictive equation (Y=1481X+565) was obtained from a linear regression model, where Y is predicted value of moisture index, X is tree ring width index. As a result, the local moisture index in 1750 AD at Yishan, Shandong Province, was reconstructed based on tree ring chronologies.For verification of the reliability of the reconstructed moisture index in Yishan area, the dry years were selected from document data, which were used to compare with the years with the small reconstructed moisture index. From 1750 to 1960, there are 32 dry years in document data, which were coincided with the 24 small moisture index years (1758,1768,1774,1778,1786,1805,1814,1825,1837,1838,1856,1860,1876,1877,1878,1899,1907,1917,1920,1925,1927,1948,1952,1959). There are 75 percent correct predictions, which indicates that the reconstructed results were reliable.

关 键 词：沂山 树轮 湿润指数 气候重建 古气候 

分 类 号：P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]