甘肃省粮食生产波动的影响因素与对策  

Influential Factors and Countermeasures of Grain Production Fluctuation in Gansu Province

作　　者：段小红[1] 王化俊 耿小娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃省作物遗传改良与种质资源创新重点实验室,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2009年第3期280-283,共4页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划<西北旱寒区主要作物抗逆新品种筛选及栽培技术集成示范>(编号:2006BAD29B07);甘肃省重大科技专项计划<采用分子技术培育高产优质多抗专用小麦新品种研究与示范>(编号:0801NKDA013)

摘　　要：为寻求粮食安全生产的基本对策,本文根据1978-2007年甘肃省粮食生产的相关资料,运用环比增长率法分析了粮食生产波动的特征是:古典型波动、波动频繁、波动幅度较大;运用生产函数法确定了影响粮食产量主要因素是:粮食播种面积、受灾面积、有效灌溉面积、农业机械总动力、粮食价格;并结合甘肃省粮食生产的实际情况,提出了稳定粮食生产的基本对策主要是:加强农业技术应用与推广、完善粮食补贴政策和加强农业基础设施建设。To seek the essential countermeasures of the grain production safety in Gansu Province, based on the relevant references of 1978-2007, the grain production fluctuations＇ characteristics was analyzed by using the method of link relative increment rate, such as its fluctuation type was Classical, fluctuates frequently, and the fluctuation range was great; to confirm the main influential factors of Gansu grain yield with the Production Function, including： Sowing area, afflicted area, effective irrigated area, total motive force of agricultural machinery, grain price respectively. And then, the countermeasures to maintain steady grain production were given out as following： Strengthening agricultural technical application and popularization; improving the grain subsidy policy; constructing the agricultural infrastructures respectively.

关 键 词：粮食生产 波动 影响因素 甘肃省 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]