地质灾害危险性区划的多态系统可靠性分析方法  

A Reliability Analysis of Multi-state System on Geological Hazard Zoning

作　　者：李秀珍[1,2] 孔纪名[1,2] 王成华[1,2] 王震宇[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院山地灾害与表生过程重点实验室,四川成都610041 [2]中国科学院·水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [3]四川交通职业技术学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《灾害学》2009年第2期1-6,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40802072,50639070);中科院“西部之光”人才培养计划项目(O8R2140140);川西山地灾害危险性评估(110900k213)

摘　　要：在对多态系统可靠性研究的基础上,将基于矩阵分析的多态系统可靠性分析方法用于区域地质灾害的危险性评价研究,结果表明该方法能较好地定量评价区域地质灾害的危险程度。利用多态系统的可靠性分析方法进行地质灾害危险性区划,不仅可以得出各子区域所处的主要危险区和次主要危险区,而且还可以得出各子区域处于不同地质灾害危险区的可靠度(即可能性大小)。该方法基本克服了目前危险性评价方法中评价指标分级和量化以及危险性程度分级的人为性和随意性,具有分级标准统一、评价因素和评价方法相对简单、不受区域条件限制、适用性强等特点。Based on researching on reliability of multi-state system, the reliability analysis method of the system using matrix analysis is first introduced into hazard assessment of regional geological hazard. The results indicate that the hazard of regional geological hazard could be better assessed by the method. By using the method, not only the main and secondary hazard areas could be obtained for each sub-region, but also the confidence level of each sub-region in different hazard levels could be obtained. The method basically overcomes the random and artificial factors on classification and quantity of assessing indexes and classification of hazard level in present hazard assessment, and has the characteristics of unified classification criterion, simple assessing indexes and method and better applicability.

关 键 词：地质灾害 危险性区划 多态系统 可靠性分析 矩阵分析方法 

分 类 号：P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]