收费还贷公路债务预警系统研究  

Study on Debt Warning System of Toll Highways Based on Loan Repayment

作　　者：沈群[1,2] 黄晓明[1] 卞凤兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096 [2]安徽省公路管理局,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2009年第6期138-141,146,共5页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：安徽省交通科技资助项目(2006-36)

摘　　要：在分析现有财务预警模型及收费还贷公路特点的基础上,指出现有的财务预警模型对收费还贷公路不适用;提出以贷款偿还期作为收费还贷公路的主要预警指标并给出了计算方法;分析了用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对通行费进行预测的方法和步骤;建立了灰色预测与单变量模型相结合的收费还贷公路的债务预警模型,并介绍了基于MATLAB的预警模型操作系统;结合《收费公路管理条例》研究了警示程度的确定方法;最后以安徽省某普通收费还贷性公路为例进行了实证。The inapplicability of the present financial early warning model for toll highways based on loan repayment was pointed out on the basis of the analysis of the characteristics of present financial early warning model and the toll highway based on loan repayment. The loan repayment period was put forward as the main early warning index and its calculating method was provided. The method and process for the prediction of the toll charge by gray GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction model were analyzed. The debt early warning model of the toll highways based on loan repayment with the combination of the gray prediction and the single-variable model was set up, and the early warning model operating system based on MATLAB was introduced. The decision method of the level of alerts was studied based on the Management Statute for Charging Highway. Finally, the presented method was verified by an example of common toll highways based on loan repayment in Anhui province.

关 键 词：运输经济 预警模型 贷款偿还期 债务 收费还贷公路 

分 类 号：F540[经济管理—产业经济] U412[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]