中国城市化与经济增长关系的再考察  

Rediscovery of the Relationship between Urbanization and Economic growth in China

作　　者：程开明[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《济南大学学报（社会科学版）》2009年第3期16-21,共6页Journal of University of Jinan:Social Science Edition

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学规划重点项目"当前城乡关系特征研究"(07CGLJ001ZQ);浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地资助项目

摘　　要：城市化与经济增长密切相关,但两者关系具有时空差异性。以城市化与经济增长的关联模式为基础,参照钱纳里标准,利用最新数据考察两者间的关系发现,我国城市化仍一定程度上滞后于经济增长;采用区间估计法对省级城市化与经济增长关系的评估显示,不同省份两者之间的关系存在较大差异,近几年由于各省城市化进程、经济增长速度的不一致,导致两者关系发生了较大变动。分析结论对于促进城市化与经济增长的协调发展具有启示意义。Urbanization is correlative to economic growth,but the relation between them has temporal and spatial difference.Basing on the correlation mode,new data is applied to review the relationship.Comparing with Chenery's standard,the level of Chinese Urbanization is lagged to economic growth.Interval estimate is used to evaluate the relationship between provincial urbanization and economic growth.Results show that some provinces' urbanization is hysteretic or in advance of economic growth.The different speeds of urbanization and economic growth for 31 provinces since 2000 to 2006 lead to the change of relation between them.Some advices for enhancing the harmony between urbanization and economic growth can be derived from the conclusions.

关 键 词：城市化 经济增长 关联模式 钱纳里标准 区间评估 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]