中欧贸易摩擦的趋势预测及其对双边关系的影响——基于引力模型的实证研究  

Forecast of the Tendency of the EU-China Trade Friction and the Influences to the Bilateral Relationship:an Empirical Research Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：王思璇[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,211189

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2009年第6期37-46,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"欧盟单一市场政策调整对我国商品出口的影响及对策研究"(08BGJ026);江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目"基于欧盟标准化外部性的中欧贸易摩擦研究"(07SJB790032);东南大学预研项目的研究成果之一

摘　　要：随着中欧贸易的不断发展,中欧间贸易摩擦也在不断加大,对双边贸易关系产生了不小的影响。本文根据中欧贸易摩擦的现状,从时间维度和摩擦程度、摩擦形式、领域和范围、摩擦的性质和摩擦的层面等方面对其未来走向进行预测。利用贸易引力模型实证探讨了动植物检验检疫措施(SPS)、技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)和反倾销这三大主要壁垒对中欧间贸易所产生的影响,结果表明,中欧之间的贸易额与中国和欧盟各国的国内生产总值呈正相关性,与两国之间的距离呈负相关性,SPS、TBT和反倾销,对中欧之间的贸易额有抑制作用。并在此基础上预测中欧之间的双边贸易关系虽受到贸易壁垒的影响,但仍有很大的发展前景。With the development of the trade between China and the Europe Union （EU）, the EU-China trade frictions have increased continuously, which had a great influence on bilateral trade relationship between them. Based on the current situation of the EU-China trade frictions, this paper forecasts their future tendency from aspects including time dimension and degree, forms, field and scope, properties and the levels. Then the paper uses the trade gravity model to empirically analyses the influence brought by three major trade barriers-Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures （SPS）, Tech- nical Barriers to Trade （TBT） and anti-dumping. The result shows that there are positive correlations between the volume of trade of China and EU and the GDP of China as well as European commu- nity countries, and there are negative correlations, between the volume of trade and the distances be- tween China and European community countries. SPS, TBT and anti-dumping has inhibitory effect on trade volume. On this basis, this paper predicts that the bilateral trade relationship between China and EU has a bright developing prospect, though it will be influenced by the trade barriers.

关 键 词：SPS TBT 反倾销 引力模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.771.2[经济管理—产业经济]