基于灰色灾变理论的开封旱涝趋势分析  

Trend Analysis of Drought and Waterlogging in Kaifeng Based on Gray Catastrophe Theory

作　　者：袁双[1] 朱丽东[1] 韩艳[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学旅游与资源管理学院,浙江金华321004 [2]河南大学资源与环境研究所,河南开封475004

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第15期7092-7093,共2页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：根据开封市气象局提供的气象数据，借助灰色灾变理论建立干旱和雨涝的GM（1，1）预测模型，分别对2001年的干旱和2003的雨涝进行预测结果验证，吻合性良好。并对2009～2920年的旱涝情况做出预测。预测结果显示，2010、2015、2020年是未来的3个干旱年，2011、2018、2025年是未来的3个雨涝年。研究结果可对开封地区抗旱防涝，促进农业生产发展提供科学指导。According to the meteorological data provided by Meteorological Bureau in Kaifeng City , GM（ 1,1 ） drought and waterlogging forecast models were set up with the aid of gray catastrophe theory. The forecast results were proved to be well to coincidental with the actual drought in 2001 and waterlogging in 2003 respectively. And the drought and waterlogging occurrences from 2009 to 2020. The results showed that the 3 drought years in the future will be 2010, 2015 and 2020, and the 3 waterlogging years in the future will be 2011, 2018 and 2025. The study outcomes may provide scientific guidance to drought and waterlogging disaster fighting and the agro-production development in Kaifeng area.

关 键 词：灰色系统 开封 干旱 雨涝 GM(1  1)模型 

分 类 号：S162.1[农业科学—农业气象学]