洛阳孟津地区近47年来气温的变化特征  

Characteristics of Temperature Change for 47 Years in Luoyang Mengjin

作　　者：姜志伟[1] 华珞[1] 武雪萍[2,3] 蔡典雄[2,3] 逄焕成[2] 姜涛[4] 吴会军[2] 郑妍[2] 李银坤[2] 

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100037 [2]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [3]农业部旱作节水农业重点开放实验室,北京100081 [4]中科院地球化学研究所,贵阳550002

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2009年第2期127-132,137,共7页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2007CB109305);948国外技术引进与创新研究项目(2006-G52A-03);国家"863"计划资助项目(2006AA1002062006AA100220);948引进国际先进农业科学技术重点项目(2006-G56);国际科技合作项目(2006DFB32180);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(2008-92009-15)

摘　　要：利用洛阳孟津地区地面气象观测站1961—2007年气温观测资料，运用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验、小波分析和累积距平等方法对近47a来温度变化的主要特征进行了分析。结果表明，近47a来平均气温呈增加趋势，线性增温速率为0．19℃·（10a）^-1，其震荡周期为21～27a；季节温度变化最显著特点为冬季增温显著，夏季持续偏冷，春季和秋季增温明显。据季节温度震荡主周期判断，未来短时间内（3～6a）各季节均主要处于偏暖期。1993年至今，≥0℃和≥10℃的活动积温处于回升阶段。Based on the air temperature data of meteorological stations from 1961 to 2007, the characteristics of temperature change in Mengjin for recent 47 years were studied, by using linear-trend estimate, Mann-Kendall catastrophe test, wavelet analysis and accumulative anomaly. The results indicated that the year average temperature had an obviously increasing tendency during 47 years, and increased by 0. 19℃ per 10 years, the main period oscillation of the annual average temperature was 21-27 years. The change features of seasonal temperature were most notable, warmer sharply in winter, cooler continually in summer, and warmer significantly in spring and fall. According to the main periods of seasonal temperature changes, it will be mainly in the warmer period for 3-6 years in the future. The active accumulative temperature of ≥0℃ and ≥ 10℃ had significant upward trends after 1993.

关 键 词：气温 小波分析 Mann—Kendall法 累积距平法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458.121