加权马尔可夫模型在土地利用变化预测中的应用  

Application of Weighted Markov Model in Forecast of Land Use Change in Suzhou City

作　　者：李阿萌[1] 肖翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋学院

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2009年第5期140-142,147,共4页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：国家创新计划项目

摘　　要：在传统的马尔可夫链模型的基础上,建立了加权马尔可夫链模型。依据遥感影像,计算出太仓市1995年至2001年,2001年至2005年各类土地利用面积的马尔可夫链的转移概率,以不同步长外推的预测值与现状值(2008年)之间的相关系数为权重,用加权的马尔可夫模型对预测的结果进行修正,其修正后的结果更加接近实际。The model of fuzzy weighted Markov chain was set up based on the common forecast model of Markov chain. The method was applied to forecast the change of land use in Taicang city. Based on the remote sensing images, the transition probability matrixes of 1995 - 2001 and 2001 - 2005 were obtained. This paper amended the forecast result by using the correlation coei^cients between the predicted values calculated by different steps and the current value as the weight. The data predicted with the weighted Markov chain were the same as the real data.

关 键 词：土地利用 遥感影像 加权马尔可夫模型 预测 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]