基于集对故障树方法的电网安全运行风险评估模型  

Risk Evaluation Model of Power Grid Security Based on Set Pair and Fault Tree Method

作　　者：张丽英[1] 王绵斌[1] 谭忠富[1] 乞建勋[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电力经济研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《技术经济》2009年第5期26-31,共6页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70373017;70571023);国家"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"项目(NCET-060208)资助

摘　　要：本文首先对电网安全运行风险进行分析,并结合实际情况,运用故障树法构建电网安全运行模型;然后,利用集对分析的概念及其运算法则推导出集对与门算子和集对或门算子;接着,采取集对分析方法,得出具有确定性与不确定性的各个底事件的联系度;最后,以算例表明本文所提出的集对故障树分析法是可行的,既能实现对电网安全运行风险的度量,又避免了以往采用概率度量的不准确性,能更好地描述电网运行风险的真实程度。This paper analyzes the operation security risk of power grid,and uses the fault tree method to construct the fault tree of operation security of power grid according to actual operation situation of power grid. Then,it deduces the set pair ＇ and door＇ and ＇ or door＇ arithmetic op- erators based on the concept and rule of set pair analysis,and evaluates the operation security risk of power grid through calculating the relation- ship among ＇ bottom affairs＇ with the certainty and the uncertainty,which avoids the inveracity caused by the probability evaluation. The simulation result shows the set pair and fault tree method is feasible,and can describe the real degree of operation security risk of power grid, which helps to make decisions for power grid companies.

关 键 词：电网安全 故障树 概率风险分析 集对分析 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]