蒙特卡罗方法在危险货物道路运输风险评价中的应用  

Application of Monte-Carlo Method to the Risk Assessment of Hazardous Materials during Road Transportation

作　　者：何雅田[1] 张孝远[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2009年第3期101-103,共3页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：兰州交通大学学生科研创新项目(DXS2008-016)资助

摘　　要：在概率风险评价的基础上引入蒙特卡罗方法对危险货物道路运输进行风险评价。通过MATLAB软件编程对算例进行模拟试验,结果表明蒙特卡罗方法对危险货物道路运输风险评价具有有效性和合理性,能够得出更加客观的风险评价结果,增强了风险评价的科学性。In order to enhance the scientificalness of risk assessment, this paper introduces the Monte-Carlo method for the probability risk assessment. This method does not make all kinds of assumptions, which is inevitable in probability risk assessment process. For the simplification of risk assessment, the Monte- Carlo method can make the more objective result of risk assessment. The validity and rationality of Monte- Carlo method for the risk assessment of hazardous materials during the road transportation is practically proved by the simulation by Matlab software.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗方法 危险货物 道路运输 风险评价 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]