基于Shift-share方法的安徽省产业发展分析  

An Analysis of Anhui Industrial Development Based on Shift-share

作　　者：马强强[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥师范学院物理与电子工程系,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《合肥师范学院学报》2009年第3期35-38,共4页Journal of Hefei Normal University

摘　　要：Shift-share方法在国外是一种区域经济和产业结构分析中被广泛使用的方法,具有较强的综合性和动态性。本文以1998至2002年数据为基础,运用偏离份额技术,对安徽省三次产业结构以及安徽省所辖地级市产业结构的现状和竞争能力进行分析。结果表明,安徽省三次产业发展速度基本上和全国发展速度持平,第三产业总体发展情况良好并且对经济的贡献最大,但是大多数城市第二产业竞争力较弱,处于衰退状态,严重影响了安徽省的经济发展。Shift-share has been widely used for statistical analysis in the regional economy and industrial structure. This method possesses stronger ability in comprehensive and dynamic aspects. This paper applies Shift-share Method to analyzing the current status and competitive ability of three industrial structures of Anhui province （including industrial structure of all cities within it） based on the economic data from 1998 to 2002. The result shows that the developing speed for three industrial structures of Anhui province is in keeping with that of national development. Tertiary industry is generally performing well and has contributed a lot to economic increment. However, competitiveness of the second industry in most cities is very weak and declining, which has greatly influenced Anhui＇s economic development.

关 键 词：SHIFT-SHARE 产业结构 聚类分析 经济发展 安徽省 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]