流动性过剩与房地产泡沫关系的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of Excess Liquidity and Real Estate Bubble

作　　者：贺建清[1] 

机构地区：[1]宜春学院经管学院讲师,江西宜春336000

出　　处：《新疆社会科学》2009年第3期13-21,共9页Social Sciences in Xinjiang

基　　金：江西教育科学规划课题“与江西经济发展相适应的江西高校人才培养模式研究”(08YB164)资助

摘　　要：流动性过剩与房地产泡沫是当前我国经济领域中引起广泛关注的问题。文章首先从宏观经济的角度对流动性过剩和房地产泡沫的表现进行深入剖析,然后根据2006年1月～2008年11月的相关数据,在房价指数、广义货币、外汇储备、汇率、居民消费价格指数之间建立多元回归模型,进行协整分析、格兰杰因果检验来研究流动性过剩与房地产泡沫的关系问题。研究结果表明:流动性过剩会对房地产泡沫的形成产生影响,是房地产泡沫形成的前提条件和根源。Excess liquidity and real estate bubble are issues arouse extensive concern in the economical field of China now.This paper makes a deep analysis on the performance of excess liquidity and real estate bubble from a macroeconomic perspective,sets up multivariate regression models with house price index,broad money,foreign-exchange reserves,exchange rate and consumer price index according to the related data from Jan.2006 to Nov.2008 and conducts co-integration analysis and Granger causality test to study the relationship between excess liquidity and real estate bubble.The result shows that excess liquidity can influence the formation of real estate bubble and is the precondition and root cause of the latter.

关 键 词：流动性过剩 房地产泡沫 协整检验 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]