基于ARIMA模型的备件消耗预测方法  

Forecasting Method of Spare Parts Consumption Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：贾治宇[1] 康锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学工程系统工程系,北京100191

出　　处：《兵工自动化》2009年第6期29-31,39,共4页Ordnance Industry Automation

摘　　要：对基于求和自回归滑动平均模型的备件消耗预测方法进行研究,提出将使用过程中备件消耗的数据看作时间序列,通过建立相应的ARIMA(p,d,q)模型进行预测的方法。依据该方法选用航空兵战场某种航材备件的消耗数据进行预测。结果表明预测的准确度提高近15%,说明该方法适用于备件消耗预测。Research a prediction method for spare parts＇ consumption based on ARIMA model, put forward a method that regards the number of spare parts＇ consumption as time sequence during expenditure, and establishes the relevant ARIMA p, d, q） model to forecast. Using the method to predict the consumption number of one aeronautical material spare part, the results show that the method can enhance the prediction accuracy up to 15%. That proves the method is applicable to the prediction of spare parts＇ consumption.

关 键 词：备件消耗 预测 ARIMA 

分 类 号：N945.12[自然科学总论—系统科学]