电力消费及其影响因素：基于非参数模型的研究  

Electricity consumption and its impact factors:Based on nonparametric model

作　　者：陈文静[1] 何刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广州510632 [2]华中科技大学经济学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2009年第5期92-97,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70571026)

摘　　要：基于半参数模型和非参数模型研究了电力消费系统中各影响因素的线性以及非线性的影响效应,其结论表明:我国经济的快速增长、人口因素和经济结构都是影响我国电力消费的重要因素;电力价格指数对电力消费需求的影响效应并不是很大,不足以抵消上述因素所引致的电力消费的快速增长;而且我国的能源利用效率虽然在不断提高,但仍然还处于一个比较低的水平.This paper estimates the linear and nonlinear effect of the factors which influence electricity consumption based on the semi-parametric and nonparametric model. The conclusions are as follows： The economic growth, population and economic structure are important factors impact on the electricity consumption. The impact of the electricity price index is fewer than the above factors on the electricity consumption and the result is the growth of the electricity consumption. Furthermore, the utilized efficiency of electricity in China is still stay at low level.

关 键 词：电力消费 影响因素 半参数模型 非参数模型 

分 类 号：F407.2[经济管理—产业经济]