人民币汇率波动的福利效应——基于制造业工资的协整分析:1978～2006  

Welfare Effect of Renminbi Exchange Rate Fluctuation: A Co-integration Analysis Based on the Wages of Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：冯晓华[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]湖北大学商学院,湖北武汉430062

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2009年第5期63-68,共6页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(08BJL049);湖北大学人文社科基金青年项目(100-098209)

摘　　要：文章运用脉冲响应和方差分解的方法，以制造业工资为研究对象，考察了1978—2006年间人民币实际汇率波动的福利效应。实证分析表明人民币贬值在短期内确实有助于提高我国制造业工人的实际工资，但从长期来看，是无效的。在目前制造业内部面临产业结构调整、外部经受金融危机冲击的背景下，人民币汇率的稳定和适度贬值有助于改善制造业工人的福利．但长期内必须通过改变制造业增长模式。优化制造业产业结构，加大制造业按劳分配的力度等根本措施来促进制造业工人福利的增长。This paper discusses the influence of Renminbi real exchange rate fluctuation on real wages of manufactur industry workers. Using the methods of VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition, the empirical analysis, based on the data from 1978 to 2006, indicates that in the short-term Renminbi depreciation raises the wages of the workers, but in the long run, the effect is invalid. Chinese manufacturing industry is now in the very difficult situation of domestic industry upgrading and overseas financial crisis impact. The stability of RMB exchange rate will improve the manufacturing industry workers＇ welfare in the short run. However, some measures must be taken to promote the workers＇ welfare in the long term such as changing the growth pattern, optimizing the industrial structure and enlarging the distribution according to work and so on.

关 键 词：人民币 汇率波动 福利效应 制造业 协整分析 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]