中国资本管制有效性动态研究:1982-2008  

Dynamic Study on the Effectiveness of Capital Control in China from 1982 to 2008

作　　者：徐明东[1] 解学成 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学金融研究院,上海200433 [2]西南证券研发中心,北京100032

出　　处：《财经研究》2009年第6期29-41,共13页Journal of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：文章综合利用储蓄—投资相关性检验法、Edwards-Kahn模型法、资本管制强度测度以及抵补利率平价4种方法分别从实体经济、货币经济、法律框架以及短期资本套利动机等角度对1982-2008年期间我国资本管制的有效性进行了评估,并侧重讨论了现阶段我国资本管制是否失效的问题。研究结论显示:自1982年以来,我国的资本管制政策短期内基本有效,但随着国内经济的进一步开放和管制政策的逐步放开,资本流动性逐渐提高,资本管制的有效性呈下降趋势;2007年以来虽然存在大量短期资本流入流出的现象,但我国的资本管制仍然对国际资本流动具有明显的抑制作用。Based on saving-investment correlation method, Edwards- Kahn model, the measurement of capital control level and covered interest rate parity theory, the paper analyzes the effectiveness of capital control in China from 1982 to 2008 from the perspectives of real economy, monetary economy, legal framework and short-term arbitrage motivation. It explores that capital control policies in China has been basically effective since 1982 and the effectiveness of capital control is declining with the opening-up of domestic economy and control policies, and the higher capital liquidity. Although there exist a short-term boom of capital flow since 2007, capital control in China still significantly restraints international capital flow.

关 键 词：资本管制有效性 利率平价检验法 Edwards—Kahn模型 储蓄-投资方法 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]