电力系统小扰动概率稳定性的蒙特卡罗仿真  

Monte Carlo Simulation of Probabilistic Small Disturbance Stability

作　　者：伍红[1] 赵霞[1] 周家启[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆市400044

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2009年第11期8-12,23,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2004CB217908)~~

摘　　要：计及发电方式、负荷水平及网络拓扑的不确定性,基于蒙特卡罗状态抽样方法,通过分析系统特征值、特征向量及参与因子等特征参数的概率特性和失稳概率研究电力系统小扰动概率稳定问题。分析中分别用离散分布随机变量和正态分布随机变量描述发输电元件状态及负荷水平的概率特性,并重点讨论了网络拓扑的不确定性对失稳概率指标的影响。一个两区域算例表明所提出的方法能够从概率统计意义上为小扰动稳定性分析及电力系统稳定器(PSS)的合理配置等提供更为丰富、全面的信息。Probabilistic small disturbance stability analysis based on Monte Carlo state sampling method is implemented with consideration of uncertainties in generating dispatch, load demand and network topology. Discrete and normal distribution random variables are used respectively to describe the stochastic characteristics of component states and load levels. Numerical characteristics and probability distributions of eigenvalues, eigenvector and participation factors, and instability probabilities are calculated as stability indices. The influence of network topology uncertainties on these indices is discussed as well. Simulation results of a two-area system demonstrate that the proposed method can provide comprehensive stability assessment and robust power system stabilizers design in a statistical sense.

关 键 词：电力系统 功角稳定 小扰动稳定 概率分析 蒙特卡罗方法 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM743