我国一次能源消费的人均碳排放重心移动及原因分析  

Movement of the Gravity of Carbon Emissions Per Capita and Analysis of Causes

作　　者：王倩倩[1] 黄贤金[1] 陈志刚[1] 谭丹[1] 揣小伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学国土资源与旅游学系/自然资源研究中心,南京210093

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2009年第5期833-841,共9页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200811033);国家自然科学基金(70373029)

摘　　要：为深入把握我国由一次能源消费产生的人均碳排放变化的区域差异，引入重心概念，测算了1995-2005年间我国人均碳排放重心位置及其变化趋势，归纳了重心移动的特征。进而分析了重心移动的原因：使用重心线段中垂线的方法进行直观的图示分析，并把全国分成8个区域，采用分解模型考察各区域的人均碳排放变化情况及影响因素的贡献率。结果显示：影响因素对各个区域人均碳排放的贡献率变化差异较大，总体来讲，对人均碳排放起主要作用的是经济发展所带来的拉动作用及能源效率所产生的抑制作用。最后提出相应的政策，推广先进技术以缩小不同区域能源效率的差异，加快能源结构调整，提高能源结构对人均碳排放的抑制作用。In order to make the regional differences caused by carbon emissions per the concept of gravity is introduced. The locations as well as the changes of gravity capita clear, from 1995 to 2005 are calculated and the characteristics of the gravity＇ s movements are concluded. Based on that, two methods are used to analyze the causes of the gravity＇ s movements. First by the direct analysis in which perpendicular bisector of gravity line is employed. Then the decomposition model is utilized to analyze the contribution rates of each factor to each region. The results show that the contribution rates of influencing factors vary greatly in different regions. Generally speaking, the main factors that have effects on the amount of carbon emissions per capita are economic development and energy efficiency. Finally, some suggestions are proposed such as to popularize advanced technology to reduce regional differences in energy efficiency and propel the adjustment of energy structure to boost the inhibiting effect that energy structure has on carbon emissions per capita.

关 键 词：重心 碳排放 分解模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F224