气候干旱和经济发展双重压力下的北京水资源承载力变化情景模拟研究  

Modeling Water Resources Carrying Capacity Change under Stress of Drought and Socioeconomic Development in Beijing

作　　者：黄庆旭[1] 何春阳[1] 史培军[1] 赵媛媛[1] 杨洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学),北京100875

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2009年第5期859-870,共12页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9092007);北京市委组织部2008年北京市优秀人才培养资助D类项目"水资源约束下的北京城市扩展空间过程模拟"

摘　　要：水资源是人与其他生命系统不可缺少的一种宝贵资源，是社会经济发展的基本支撑条件。通过影响农业生产、工业生产、居民生活和环境质量，水资源影响着城市的社会经济水平。在改革开放以来的30年内，北京经历了快速的国民经济发展，但这也对水资源造成了更大的压力，使得北京成为世界上严重缺水的大城市之一。由于未来的经济和人口发展规划对水资源供给提出更高的要求，因此，论文利用系统动力学（SD）的原理和方法，首先构建了气候干旱和经济发展双重压力下的北京水资源承载力模型，进而在中国北方干旱化大背景和北京城市规划目标的基础上，设计了规划发展情景、气候干旱情景和适应对策情景并进行了模拟分析。1990-2005年的模型检验结果表明该SD模型具有一定的可靠性，能在一定程度上模拟北京水资源的复杂变化过程。2006-2020年的模拟结果显示气候干旱下北京水资源可供应量减少到29.88×10^8m^3，比起2005年减少了7.62%，远低于按规划目标发展下的水资源需求量52.83×10^8m^3。在水资源的约束下，人口和经济发展受到限制，北京可承载农业总产值、工业总产值和人口分别为128.05×10^8元、3152.69×10^8元和1167.18×10^4人，远低于北京城市总体规划设想。比较3种适应对策，开展调水工程对人口承载力影响最大，依靠科技进步对经济发展影响最大，产业结构调整的作用比较小。综合各种适应对策和气候干旱作用之后，水资源可供应量、人口和经济发展承载量接近或超过规划目标要求。Water resource, an invaluable resource indispensable is the essential support for socioeconomic development. Through for human and other life system, affecting productivity of agriculture and industry, quality of resident and environment, water resources have influenced socioeconomic development. Beijing, undergoing a rapid economic development since the ＂reform and opening＂, which also resulted in greater stress on water resources, is one of the most serious water shortage cities in the world; moreover, population growth and socio-economic development will exert higher needs for water resources supply in the future. Therefore, a system dynamics model simulating the water resources carrying capacity change under the stress of drought and socioeconomic development in Beijing is constructed. Based on the drying trend of northern China, and the Beijing Urban Planning from 2004 to 2000, scenarios, including planning of socioeconomic development, drought, adaptive strategies, are designed for analysis in this paper. Comparing the simulation results with the statistic data from 1990 to 2005, the results suggest this SD model is reliable and helpful to simulate the complicated change process of water resource to some extent. The simulation results in 2020 indicate that water resources supply decreases greatly under drought situation. It decreases to 2. 99 billion m^2, 7.62% less than the amount in 2005, far below the water resources need, 5.28 billion m^2 under the planned scheme. Under the limited water resources, the development of population and economy is strongly restricted, the values are about 11.7 million in population, 12. 8 billion yuan in primary GDP, and 315.3 billion yuan in secondary GDP respectively in 2020, which is far below the planned amount. The results also show that the water transfer is the most efficient way to cope with population growth, while the scientific ＆ technological development has great impact on economic development. Combining the effects of drought and adaptive strategies, wate

关 键 词：干旱化 水资源承载力 系统动力学模型 情景模拟 北京 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]