全球气候变化下淮河流域冬小麦气候适宜性评价  

The Evaluation of Climatic Suitability of Winter Wheat in the Huaihe River Basin Under Climatic Change Regime

作　　者：宋秋洪[1] 千怀遂[1] 俞芬[1] 段海来[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学学院,广州510006

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2009年第5期890-897,共8页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"基于生态适宜度理论的淮河流域农业气候风险评估"(40771033)

摘　　要：参照已有的气候适宜性评价模型和冬小麦生理气候阈值,建立冬小麦气候适宜度模型,选取淮河流域及周边地区43个县(市)45年的逐日气象数据,对该流域冬小麦气候适宜性时空差异进行了分析。结果表明,该流域温度适宜性、降水适宜性、日照适宜性的空间分布与温度、降水和日照的空间分布有明显的一致性,它们和气候适宜性都呈现出一定的地域分布规律;降水和温度是影响该流域气候适宜度的重要限制因素,尤其是降水的影响最为明显;在全球气候变化的影响下,气候适宜性倾向率主要受日照的影响,以0.002/10 a的倾向率下降;温度、降水、日照和气候的适宜性倾向率具有明显的地域分异规律。Based on the existing evaluation model of climatic suitability and physiological threshold value of winter wheat, the evaluation model of climatic suitability of winter wheat was built, 43 counties in the Huaihe River Basin was selected, using their everyday＇ s weather data from 1961 to 2005 and the temporal and spatial differences of the winter wheat climatic suitability were calculated. The result could be gotten as follows： first, there is an obvious consistency between spatial distribution of temperature suitability, precipitation suitability and sunshine suitability and spatial distribution of temperature, precipitation and sunshine. The suitability of temperature, precipitation, sunshine and climate persents distinct spatial differences are regional distribution laws; second, precipitation and temperature have great impacts on the climatic suitability of winter wheat, especially precipitation; under the global climatic change regime, the climatic suitability of winter wheat decreases 0. 002/10a and the change of sunshine resource plays a key role; the annual suitability changes of temperature, precipitation, sunshine and climatic also present law of spatial differences.

关 键 词：评价 气候适宜性 冬小麦 淮河流域 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]